Futures Case; Inflation, Jobs Data Could Be Market Catalyst - Gatous News

futures case; Inflation, Jobs Data Could Be Market Catalyst

Dow Jones futures fell sharply early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with some important jobs and inflation data due before the market open.




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The stock market rally searched for direction Wednesday. The major indexes closed narrowly mixed. But the details showed further weakness, with losers easily trumping winners.

With the uptrend under pressure, it’s not a good time to be making new buys or holding more than token exposure.

The medical sector continues to lead, bouncing back from Tuesday losses. UnitedHealth (UNH) moved higher in a buy zone after just breaking out Wednesday. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reclaimed as an early entry after Tuesday’s retreat. McKesson (MCK) is holding key support in its shallow base, not far from an aggressive entry. Lantheus (LNTH) is trading around its 50-day line, consolidating after a huge run-up earlier this year. All have relative strength lines near record highs.

Upscale furniture retailer RH (RH) trimmed full-year estimates, citing weaker demand and a deteriorating economic environment. RH stock fell sharply early Thursday, signaling a fresh two-year low. Shares are already down 11% so far this week.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL), which makes low-carb snacks and shakes, reports earnings early Thursday. SMPL stock rose 2% to 41.20 Wednesday, near a 42.01 early entry within a consolidation.

Some other food and beverage stocks are faring well, reflecting the defensive mindset in the market. Cereal giant General Mills (GIS) jumped 6.35% on Wednesday to 74.72, breaking out on earnings and a dividend hike. Post Holdings (POST) is right at a buy point while Kellogg (K) is setting up.

Tesla stock fell 1.8% to 685.47, down 7% so far this week. Shares are continuing a retreat from their 10-week moving average and are heading back toward recent lows. LI stock rose 2.7% to 38.08, back above a buy point, but remains highly extended from key moving averages. Tesla (TSLA) and China EV startup Li car (LI) will report Q2 sales later this week.

UNH stock is on IBD Leaderboard. LNTH stock is on the Leaderboard watchlist. Simply Good Foods, UnitedHealth and VRTX stock are on the IBD 50. Vertex and MCK stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20. Lantheus was Wednesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

The video embedded in this article analyzed Wednesday’s market action and discussed GIS stock, McKesson and Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX).

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures retreated 1.2% vs fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 1.45% and Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 1.65%.

Bitcoin tumbled to $19,000. Late Wednesday, the SEC rejected Grayscale’s bid to turn Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the biggest Bitcoin fund, into an outright ETF tracking the Bitcoin spot price.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 3.06%.

Crude oil prices fell slightly, while gasoline futures sank more than 3%, continuing a retreat from record highs. OPEC+ meets today to discuss production quotas, but it’s unclear how much more actual output the cartel and Russia can provide.

Copper prices fell more than 1%.

China’s manufacturing index for China rose 0.6 point in June to 50.2, moving back above the break-even 50 level for the first time in four months as the country recovers from Covid lockdowns. But it was slightly below views for 50.5. The services index jumped to 54.7 vs 47.8 in May.

The US ISM manufacturing index for June is due Friday morning, following several negative regional factory reports.

At 8:30 am ET on Thursday, investors will get key US jobs and inflation data. The Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims. The Commerce Department will issue the May income and spending report, which includes the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live


Stock market rally

The stock market rally traded in a narrow range Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost a fraction. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 1%.

US crude oil prices fell 1.8% to $109.78 a barrel, reversing from solid morning gains. Gasoline futures fell 2.8%.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 12 basis points to 3.09%. The two-year yield slumped to 3.06%. The two-to-10-year yield spread is down to 3 basis points, highlighting recession concerns.

Fed chief Jerome Powell once again stressed Wednesday that the central bank’s priority is fighting inflation, even at the risk of a recession.

ETFs

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 1.25%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) climbed 0.75%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 0.2%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 1.8%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) slumped 2.8% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) retreated 1.3%. US Global Jets ETF (JETS) gave up 1.5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) dipped 0.4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) tumbled 3.5% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) slipped 0.6%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 0.9%, with UNH stock, Vertex and McKesson all in the ETF.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) retreated 1.6% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) lost 0.6%. TSLA stock remains a top holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs.


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Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally didn’t show bullish action, only managing a mixed session after Tuesday’s big losses.

The details were less impressive, with decliners outpacing advancing stocks by nearly 2-to-1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The market moved to “uptrend under pressure” on Tuesday as the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 closed below the lows of their Friday follow-through day.

Research from Eric Krull, co-author of The Lifecycle Trade, shows that there’s a 90% chance that the rally will ultimately fail when an index closes below its follow-through day low.

The rally is not officially over until the indexes undercut their recent lows.

The Dow Jones hasn’t closed below its follow-through day low, but it isn’t far off.

The Russell 2000, for its part, closed below Friday’s lows on Wednesday.

Medicals rebounded, while defensive food stocks did well. But energy stocks, which bounced earlier in the week, fell solidly on Wednesday.


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What To Do Now

The stock market rally isn’t finished, but the prospects aren’t high. The odds simply aren’t in your favor right now. Investors should be focusing on preserving their mental and physical capital and preparing for a sustained market uptrend.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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